Bethpage Black in New York is one of the most challenging golf courses in the country. On Thursday, May 16, the Long Island venue will play host to its third golf major. After previously hosting the U.S. Open in 2002 and 2009, Bethpage Black will play host to the 2019 PGA Championship. Normally played in August, the PGA Championship 2019 has been moved up three months in the PGA schedule to form a more condensed major season. After winning his 15th major championship at the Masters, Tiger Woods is the favorite in the latest 2019 PGA Championship odds at 17-2, down from the 14-1 he was fetching at Augusta. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is just behind him at 19-2, followed by an elite group of 2019 PGA Championship contenders. Before you make your 2019 PGA Championship picks, scope out the projected leaderboard and predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods' deep run in the last PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.
Now with the 2019 PGA Championship field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a four-time champion, reigning Masters winner, and the top Vegas favorite, doesn't even crack the top five.
Woods is coming off one of the most historic victories in recent memory at the 2019 Masters. The 15-time major champion shot a 2-under par 70 to win his first green jacket since 2005 and his first major since the 2008 U.S. Open. His victory at Augusta National was the first time in his career that he came from behind to win a major.
However, Woods struggled in 2012 at The Barclays, his last start at Bethpage. He finished the tournament at 1-over par after shooting a final-round 76, a 38th-place finish. SportsLine's model isn't calling for back-to-back major victories and sees far better values in this loaded field than the 17-2 premium he's commanding, lower than the 14-1 he was fetching at the Masters.
Another surprise: Jason Day, a 24-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
The 2015 PGA Championship winner at Whistling Straits was formerly the No. 1 player in the world after winning eight times in a 15-month stretch from February 2015 to May 2016. However, back injuries have slowed him down in recent years. He's been playing through the pain this season and performing well as the No. 14 player in the world with a fifth-place finish at the Masters and five top-10s to his name this season.
Day is one of the most talented putters on tour, ranking fourth in strokes gained putting by picking up an average of 0.868 per round on the greens against an average tour player. He also ranks fifth in strokes gained off the tee (0.758) and seventh in total strokes gained per round at 1.632. If Day can manage his health and pain for four days, he has the natural talent to fly up the 2019 PGA Championship leaderboard quickly.
Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 PGA Championship odds of 18-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.