The past few years in Vilamoura have seen the course toughened up ever so slightly with rough grown higher than what it ever was, but that hasn't exactly stopped the scoring. It is slightly more tough than before but I'd say that element has played into the hands of the bombers more than anything.

In 2020 George Coetzee bombed his way to victory here and last year it was even more of a long hitters leaderboard with Pieters winning with Rasmus and Bjerregaard tucked in behind.

Once again we'll see a few of these types on the leaderboard on Sunday given the nature of this track. Strokes gained tee to green is usually a good indicator here as to who may perform well and I'm looking to those with great ball striking and an ability to hole plenty of putts to go well in Portugal. None fit the bill more so than the tournament favourite.

Robert MacIntyre at 14/1 

It will be interesting to see if Yannick Paul's win will open the floodgates for the talented crop of Germans with Marcel Schneider of particular interest this week. He is a solid all-rounder who could take to Victoria but the price around 40/1 is maybe worth passing up this time. Instead, the headline selection goes the way of the tournament favourite this week in Robert MacIntyre.

Bobby's recent form is just too difficult to ignore and he could comfortably have the measure of his opponents here in Portugal. His driving wasn't quite up to scratch at Valderrama last time out but that is understandable giving the claustrophobic nature of that track. He should improve for his first look at this track last year where he finished 64th and he turns up a much more accomplished golfer this time around.

He gathered himself quite well from a disappointment at the end of last term not making the grade to the PGA tour via the Korn Ferry route. After that he managed a 4th placed spot in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai and has continued that fine form once again peaking in September for his Italian Open victory. That was hugely significant, not only because of the strength of the field, but the marker it puts down for next years Ryder Cup at that venue.

Top 10s have followed in France and Spain, with the latter being very impressive given his poor week off the tee. He gets better the closer he gets to the greens these days and I'd be surprised should he not manage another win soon enough given the quality of his game. He has everything, and I expect him to cement his place in the top 50 in the world from here and hit those expectations that have been talked about for a few years. He has a hot putter to rely upon also which is always an advantage at Victoria.

3pts WIN R.MacIntyre 14/1

Matthew Southgate at 55/1 (Eight Places)

Matthew Southgate has been playing extremely good golf in recent weeks and his impressive long game should provide a sound basis on which to launch a fair challenge this week in Portugal.

A couple of months back his long game peaked when ranking 11th tee to green at Himmerland, then the same ranking tee to green at Wentworth. The BMW of course was a very deep field and that performance at Wentworth where he finished 13th was a sign of just what he can produce.

Lately, his approach game has faded a little but that improved a little last week in Mallorca and with his driver performance continuing to flourish he only needs a small upturn with the irons to produce a special week. He has shown before he is more than capable in windy weather also and with conditions looking challenging at the weekend he should relish this chance. 

1pt each-way M.Southgate  55/1 (1/5 8)

Marc Warren at 150/1 (Six Places)

I expected Marc Warren to be priced a shade bigger by the bookmakers and they're slightly alive to his chances this week but nevertheless, I shall have a small bet around the 150/1 mark. The Scot has hit form making five of his last six cuts with 8th in Spain a few weeks ago being his best effort within that timeframe. He finished 30th last week in Mallorca ranking 5th from tee to green.

Long game problems plague the Scotsman year on year but it must be said there has been a vast improvement in that department and he must be closely watched in the coming weeks. He has made seven of his last seven cuts here in Vilamoura finishing 2nd back in 2017. I had hoped for a bigger price but he looks one of the livelier outsiders.

1pt each-way M.Warren 150/1 (1/5 6)

Wil Besseling at 75/1 (Eight Places)

Wil Besseling sits 72nd in the rankings and needs a good week this week to make the grade for the final few events of the season. Finishing 14th and 43rd in two outings here in Vilamoura, the Dutchman should welcome this track in his bid to continue the season. His usually solid game with the driver has somewhat declined since France a few weeks ago but has started to improve once again since Spain.

A wide, expansive, generous layout such as this should give him a chance to further improve in that department and should we see an upturn with the approach play we could find a contender here.

His length is an advantage at Victoria for sure and it's worth remembering he went mighty close to landing a victory a few months ago at the Porsche when he was only outdone by a miracle round of golf from Kalle Samooja. He should improve for that effort the next time he's in contention and he has plenty to play for this week in Portugal.

1pt each-way W.Besseling 75/1 (1/5 8)